Moving averages, the 52 week range and beta
Under the valuation ratios, The Numbers section lists four technical figures: the 50 day moving average, the 200 day moving average, the 52 week high and low, and beta. They are the price chart compressed into numbers, and they answer three questions: which way is the stock trending, where is it in its yearly range, and how wild is it. This guide takes them one at a time.
Moving averages
A moving average is the average closing price over the last however many trading days. The 50 day average smooths out about ten weeks of trading; the 200 day average, about ten months. Each day the oldest close drops out and the newest joins, so the average moves, slowly, in the direction the price has been going.
The first thing to check is whether the price is above or below each average. Above both is a stock in an uptrend; below both, a downtrend; between them, a stock that has been rising over the long run but falling lately, or the reverse. The averages lag by construction, so they will never catch a turn early. What they do is filter noise: a stock that dips below its 50 day average for a day and bounces has not changed trend; one that spends a month below it has.
The second thing traders watch is the two averages against each other. When the 50 day rises through the 200 day it is called a golden cross, and when it falls through, a death cross, names that promise more than the signals deliver. They confirm a trend that is already well established, which is useful for knowing where you are and useless for knowing where you are going.
The 52 week high and low
The highest and lowest prices of the last year. Together with today's price they place the stock in its range. A stock near its 52 week high has been strong; a stock near its low has been weak; a stock in the middle has been going sideways or has round tripped.
Highs and lows matter because people remember them. Someone who bought near the high and watched the stock fall often sells when it gets back there, relieved to be even, which makes old highs into resistance. A stock making a new 52 week high has no such sellers above it, which is part of why new highs tend to be followed by more new highs, at least for a while. The same logic runs at the low, where bargain hunters appear.
A stock at its 52 week low is not cheap and a stock at its high is not expensive. Those are questions for the valuation ratios. The range tells you about price behaviour, not value.
Beta
Beta measures how much a stock moves compared with the market. A beta of one means it moves about as much as the S&P 500; two means about twice as much, in both directions; half means half. A beta below zero, which is rare, means it tends to move the opposite way.
Beta is computed from history, and history is a decent guide to volatility even when it is a poor guide to direction. A beta of two is a stock that will make your watchlist exciting, throw confetti more often and hurt more on red days. A beta of half is a stock that will sit quietly through most of what the market does.
Practical uses: a percent move alert should be set wider on a high beta stock, because three percent is an ordinary day for it. And a watchlist full of high beta names will swing with the market more than the market does, which is fine if you meant it.
Putting the four together
Price above both averages, near the 52 week high, beta of 1.5: a strong stock in a strong trend that moves a lot. Price below both averages, near the low, beta of 0.7: a weak stock in a slow decline. Price between the averages, mid range, beta near one: a stock doing nothing in particular, which is most stocks most of the time.
None of it predicts. It describes, precisely and without opinion, what the price has done, and knowing that is the first step to reading anything else on the page.
Try it in the Just Stock Quotes web app. The same screen is in the iPhone, iPad and Android apps.
Search a stock